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The Federal Reserve

The Fed sets US monetary policy and, because the dollar is the world's reserve currency, its decisions move every currency pair — GBP/USD included. Here is how it works.

What the Federal Reserve is

The Federal Reserve System — “the Fed” — is the central bank of the United States, created by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. It is structured as a board of governors in Washington plus twelve regional Reserve Banks. Unlike the Bank of England’s single inflation focus, the Fed operates under a dual mandate: to promote maximum employment and stable prices, the latter defined as 2% inflation measured by the PCE price index.

The FOMC and the federal funds rate

US interest-rate policy is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which meets eight times a year and sets a target range for the federal funds rate. Each meeting brings a statement, and four times a year a “dot plot” showing where each official expects rates to go, plus a press conference from the Fed Chair. Markets parse every word: because the dollar sits on one side of the vast majority of global FX trades, an FOMC surprise moves not just GBP/USD but currencies, bonds and equities worldwide.

How the Fed drives GBP/USD

GBP/USD is a contest between the pound and the dollar, so the Fed is one half of the story even on a UK-quiet day. A hawkish Fed — raising rates, or signalling higher-for-longer — tends to strengthen the dollar and push Cable down. A dovish Fed tends to do the opposite. The cleanest way to think about it is the gap between Fed and Bank of England policy: widening in the dollar’s favour pressures GBP/USD lower; widening in the pound’s favour supports it.

The dollar’s special role

Because the dollar is the global reserve and safe-haven currency, the Fed’s influence extends far beyond US borders. In times of stress, investors buy dollars and US Treasuries regardless of the source of the shock, which is why GBP/USD can fall on bad news that has nothing to do with the UK. See the US dollar profile for more on this.

Federal Reserve FAQ

What is the Federal Reserve?
The Fed is the central bank of the United States, created in 1913. It sets US interest rates through the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and has a dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices.
How does the Fed move the dollar and GBP/USD?
When the Fed raises rates or signals a hawkish path, the dollar tends to strengthen and GBP/USD tends to fall; dovish surprises tend to weaken the dollar and lift Cable. Because the dollar is the reserve currency, Fed moves ripple through every currency pair.
What is the federal funds rate?
It is the Fed’s benchmark policy rate — the target range for overnight lending between banks. It anchors US borrowing costs and is the headline number markets watch at each FOMC meeting.

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